Marzieh Araghi, Ph.D., M.P.H., from the International Agency for Research on Cancer in Lyon, France, and colleagues used data from the World Health Organization mortality database (1989 to 2016) to project colon and rectal cancer mortality rates and number of deaths in 42 countries up to the year 2035.
The researchers found that mortality rates for colon cancer are predicted to continue decreasing in the majority of included countries from Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania, but not Latin America or the Caribbean. Predictions for mortality rates from rectal cancer were similar to those for colon cancer, except rates are predicted to increase substantially in Costa Rica (+73.6 percent), Australia (+59.2 percent), the United States (+27.8 percent), Ireland (+24.2 percent), and Canada (+24.1 percent). The number of deaths is expected to rise in all countries for both colon (60 percent) and rectal cancer (71.5 percent) until 2035 as a result of population growth and aging. Reductions in mortality rates are likely due to improved access to early detection services and improved specialized care.
“Increases in rectal cancer mortality in some high-income countries such as Australia, Canada, and the United States are worrisome and the underlying mechanisms warrant further research,” the authors write.
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Posted: January 2019